The West Will Be Won - But At What Cost?

Jason Kidd's NBA career has now come full circle. The eight-time All-Star, who was the second overall pick in the 1994 NBA draft, is headed back to the Dallas Mavericks. Kidd has since been traded to Phoenix and New Jersey, where he led the Nets to back-to-back NBA Finals appearances in 2002 and 2003.

Kidd is being looked upon to provide experience and mental toughness to a Mavericks squad that has seemed to lack both at some point since joining the NBA's elite.

The Mavs are not the only team to make a significant move in the Western Conference.

Two weeks ago the Phoenix Suns pulled off a deal that landed them Shaquille O'Neal in exchange for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks. The soon to be 36-year-old center will make his Suns' debut Wednesday against his former team, the Los Angeles Lakers. The Suns, who have arguably the game's best point guard in Steve Nash, now have a low post player who can draw a double-team on the low blocks. This will enable the Suns to be effective in the half court game come playoff time. And this will allow O'Neal to find snipers Leonardo Barbosa, Grant Hill, Raja Bell and Nash in open areas of the floor. The true beneficiary of this deal may be power forward Amare Stoudemire, who returns to his natural position after spending the better part of four seasons as the team's center.

The Lakers have done some tweaking of their own, by grabbing versatile big man Pau Gasol from the Memphis Grizzlies. Gasol gives the Lakers another scorer to compliment Kobe Bryant. Gasol's mid-range game can pull the opposition's big man from under the basket and open things up for Andrew Bynum. He's a gifted passer and decent defender in the paint area. With Lamar Odom and the impending return of center Bynum, Phil Jackson looks to make a serious push for his tenth NBA title.

These three moves not only shifted the balance of league power to the Western Conference - they have made a good conference great and a must see attraction come playoff time. The rub is that there are eight spots and right now four teams are fighting for the last two spots. Sacramento all but tanked their season by trading Mike Bibby late last week to Atlanta. Portland, Denver, Houston and Golden State will have it out for the 7th and a 8th seeds. This season there is no shame in finishing as an eighth seed, as things stand right now, 4.5 games separate seeds 1 through 8. But there's more than 9 teams in the Conference playing .600 ball or better with a total of 10 teams playing above .500. That means that there will be some teams just as deserving not in the playoffs this season.

With the trade deadline this Thursday teams that are in the bottom half of the bracket have to proceed with caution when making personnel decisions; as  it could make the difference in moving up or possibly missing the playoffs altogether.  

If the season were to end today this is how the Western Conference playoff picture would look:

(1) New Orleans vs. (8) Houston
(2) Phoenix vs. (7) Golden State
(3) LA Lakers vs. (6) Dallas
(4) Utah vs. (5) San Antonio

Here's how I see it playing out over the long haul:

(1) Phoenix vs. (8) Golden State: Plenty of running, but the Warriors are too light in the paint, despite Shaq seeing 25 min per game. Suns in 6.

(2) Dallas vs. (7) Denver: The acquisition of Ron Artest begins to manifest itself just in time to pull off the upset. Nuggets in 7

(3) Utah vs. (6) New Orleans: For those that love rebounding and blocks, this is the series for you. This will be a 7-game war with two of the game's best floor generals going head up. Hornets in 7.

(4) LA Lakers vs. (5) San Antonio: The loss of Tony Parker cost them serious ground in the standings and failure to make a move before the trade deadline will cost them in the first round. Lakers in 6.

Second Round:

(1) Phoenix vs. (4) LA Lakers: In the most anticipated playoff series in years, the Suns have no answer for Kobe Bryant who plays through the injured pinkie. Shaq does not embarrass himself against a younger Bynum. But it is the supporting cast of the Lakers that decide the series. Gasol, Fisher and Odom carry the Lakers into the Conference Finals. Lakers in 7

(5) New Orleans vs. (7) Denver: The Nuggets control the glass and the lane as Ron Artest puts on a defensive clinic by guarding all 5 positions at some point in the series. MVP Chris Paul keeps the Hornets game, but it isn't enough. Nuggets in 5.

Western Conference Finals:

(5) LA Lakers vs. (7) Denver: This is a series that goes down to the wire. The Nuggets have gained momentum and confidence throughout the playoffs and can see the Promised Land but the Lakers are playing on another level, as Lamar Odom becomes the triple threat player that we hoped he would be. He becomes the point man in Jackson's triangle offense and the Lakers go on to face the Pistons in the NBA Finals.

Ok, call me crazy or whatever, regardless of how things turn out in the West. The Eastern Conference representative will be facing a physically and mentally worn team. These series in the West will be long and grueling with most going six or seven games. And that has to weigh on the minds of the coaches; how can I keep my guys rested and remain effective?

Benches will become as important as ever in the playoffs. Teams that give up depth for the proverbial "final piece" at the trading deadline may be on the outside looking in after one round...or sooner.