Hillary's uphill battle

"It's about the numbers, and the numbers are the numbers," Ohio Democratic Party chairman Chris Redfern told the New York Times today. "It's not about hand-wringing. And Senator Obama has the lead," said Redfern, an uncommitted superdelegate.

The superdelegates can count the numbers for themselves, and the numbers continue to line up in Obama's favor.

The Illinois senator leads in the popular vote, prompting the Clinton camp to argue that their candidate is actually ahead if you count Florida and Michigan, two states that don't count and in which the candidates agreed not to compete. Obama leads in the number of states won, and that won't change by the end of the primary season because there aren't enough states left for Clinton to overtake him.

More importantly, Obama leads in delegates, by all counts. CNN shows Obama with 1,732 delegates to 1592 for Clinton. The New York Times gives Obama 1,734 delegates to 1,592 for Clinton. Real Clear Politics gives Obama 1,738 to Clinton's 1,599. And MSNBC gives Obama 1,738 to 1,601 for Clinton.

Obama carries a lead of more than 100 delegates, no matter who you ask. With superdelegates breaking his way, that poses a huge challenge for Clinton. Yesterday Obama announced the support of former DNC chair Joe Andrew and today he announced the support of yet another former DNC chair, Paul Kirk. The party leadership that once lined up solidly behind Clinton in 2007 and gave her a commanding lead in superdelegates is now turning toward Obama.

So what would it take for Clinton to win? If Clinton wins 60 percent of the delegates in the upcoming races -- an impressive feat that she hasn't been able to pull off so far -- she would still trail Obama in the number of pledged delegates at the end of the primary season, the New York Times reported today. That would then require her to win 60 percent of the undecided superdelegates to win the nomination. Since the majority of the superdelegates have trended toward Obama in the past few months, that scenario seems unlikely.

If, on the other hand, Clinton won 70 percent of the delegates in the upcoming races -- something she's only done in the state of Arkansas -- she would only end up tied with Obama at the end of the primary season, according to the Times analysis. Then she would need almost half of the unannounced superdelegates to support her campaign.

Neither one of those scenarios is very likely to happen, which leaves Clinton in a predicament. The only way she can really win is if Obama's campaign implodes or collapses so badly that voters and superdelegates abandon him in droves and flock to her as an alternative. That scenario itself is not impossible, but it is highly unlikely considering Obama's ability to continue picking up new superdelegates even after all the controversies his campaign has weathered.