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Hillary's uphill battle
Staff Reporter | Posted May 2, 2008 10:26 AM
Senator Hillary Clinton has been on a roll the past few weeks. Helped by the controversy over Senator Barack Obama's former pastor and her recent victory in Pennsylvania, Clinton is announcing new superdelegate endorsements and trying to create the appearance of momentum. But when you look at the delegate numbers stacked against her, it seems almost impossible for her to win the nomination...unless Obama loses it.
"It's about the numbers, and the numbers are the numbers," Ohio Democratic Party chairman Chris Redfern told the New York Times today. "It's not about hand-wringing. And Senator Obama has the lead," said Redfern, an uncommitted superdelegate.
The superdelegates can count the numbers for themselves, and the numbers continue to line up in Obama's favor.
The Illinois senator leads in the popular vote, prompting the Clinton camp to argue that their candidate is actually ahead if you count Florida and Michigan, two states that don't count and in which the candidates agreed not to compete. Obama leads in the number of states won, and that won't change by the end of the primary season because there aren't enough states left for Clinton to overtake him.
More importantly, Obama leads in delegates, by all counts. CNN shows Obama with 1,732 delegates to 1592 for Clinton. The New York Times gives Obama 1,734 delegates to 1,592 for Clinton. Real Clear Politics gives Obama 1,738 to Clinton's 1,599. And MSNBC gives Obama 1,738 to 1,601 for Clinton.
Obama carries a lead of more than 100 delegates, no matter who you ask. With superdelegates breaking his way, that poses a huge challenge for Clinton. Yesterday Obama announced the support of former DNC chair Joe Andrew and today he announced the support of yet another former DNC chair, Paul Kirk. The party leadership that once lined up solidly behind Clinton in 2007 and gave her a commanding lead in superdelegates is now turning toward Obama.
So what would it take for Clinton to win? If Clinton wins 60 percent of the delegates in the upcoming races -- an impressive feat that she hasn't been able to pull off so far -- she would still trail Obama in the number of pledged delegates at the end of the primary season, the New York Times reported today. That would then require her to win 60 percent of the undecided superdelegates to win the nomination. Since the majority of the superdelegates have trended toward Obama in the past few months, that scenario seems unlikely.
If, on the other hand, Clinton won 70 percent of the delegates in the upcoming races -- something she's only done in the state of Arkansas -- she would only end up tied with Obama at the end of the primary season, according to the Times analysis. Then she would need almost half of the unannounced superdelegates to support her campaign.
Neither one of those scenarios is very likely to happen, which leaves Clinton in a predicament. The only way she can really win is if Obama's campaign implodes or collapses so badly that voters and superdelegates abandon him in droves and flock to her as an alternative. That scenario itself is not impossible, but it is highly unlikely considering Obama's ability to continue picking up new superdelegates even after all the controversies his campaign has weathered.
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Purl Gurl commented on Hillary's uphill battle:
Should Hillary win Indiana by five percentage points or more, and should Clinton lose North Carolina... -
SugarMan commented on Hillary's uphill battle:
Hillary is pathetic. She knows she cannot win, but is determined to make Obama lose. Florida and Mic... -
brucito commented on Hillary's uphill battle:
This woman and her house n-word (indirect and direct) supporters are begining to get far too much me... -
Anybody but Hillary 08! commented on Hillary's uphill battle:
HRC has every right to feel upbeat,her arm twisting, threats and red faced mad husband's rants to th... -
Deb King commented on Hillary's uphill battle:
A really important issue that the Clinton camp raises often is 'electability' which is followed by ...
May 2, 2008 9:37 AM
While I would never vote for her under any circumstance, I have to give her props for staying in and giving it her all. She may or may not get it this time around, but, I guess she will be back in 4 years, and, hopefully will have learned one thing, run a clean race, keep your surrogates in line and, then you can sew it up sooner and keep the respect of voters who like me were/are turned off by her and her the smear campaign and sense of entitlement.
And, oh yeah, before her supporters go off in thier shrill way, sorry, not voting for Obama or McCain either.
May 2, 2008 9:50 AM
This "staff writer" forgot to consider the likelihood of Clinton gaining delegates from her Michigan and Florida wins, as the party will consider how to award at least some of their delegates. The writer also doesn't seem to understand, as clearly much of the public doesn't either, that as neither candidate can reach the magic number needed to clinch the nomination based upon pledged delegates, the superdelegates have every right to choose who has the best chance of winning against McCain. Recent polls show HRC with a clear advantage over Obama in the general election. If HRC continues to rack up impressive wins, and she thus clearly has the late momentum and polls continue to show her as a better matchup against McCain, who do you think the superdelegates are then gonna support, once the primary season is over??? Hillary 08!!!!
May 2, 2008 10:08 AM
A really important issue that the Clinton camp raises often is 'electability' which is followed by the 2 problems Obama has had. They've been allowed to do this because of Obama's camp and it's dedication to the party.
In reality, the Clinton's come with a lot more issues that the Republican's will take advantage of in November, whether it be the Lewinsky scandal, the Rose legal firm, Hillary's attempted illegal actions against Nixon which resulted in her firing, Bill's recent questionable financial tactics, etc., etc.
The DNC is more than aware of this and is probably embarrassed by the antics of the Hillary camp, which has muddied this primary. Her rise in the polls has been accomplished by embarrassing slams against the entire Democratic activist community and gimmicks. Hopefully, this will become apparent before Tuesday or this will be an even longer ride.
May 2, 2008 10:16 AM
HRC has every right to feel upbeat,her arm twisting, threats and red faced mad husband's rants to the insipid "super delegates" is working, however, with her long laundry list of negatives that the GOP will make sure we all are reminded of, to have her more or less steal the nomination will do one thing, make sure McCain/Bush wins.
So let her get the nomination, and, it will be one glorious day when she loses in a landslide.
May 2, 2008 12:28 PM
This woman and her house n-word (indirect and direct) supporters are begining to get far too much media attention on all of the blogs on the internet than they are worthy of.
Let's stop helping her stay in the race and assist in doing nothing else but boosting the book sales of her pic-a-ninny supporters (several of whom deserve to have nothing but their prominent black asses whipped) by stop talking about her.
May 2, 2008 7:04 PM
Hillary is pathetic. She knows she cannot win, but is determined to make Obama lose. Florida and Michigan are out because they broke the Democratic Party rules. Basically, she's screwed.
Hillary does not deserve to be president - she has not make good on her promise to bring jobs to New York and her gas tax idea is laughable.
Tired heifer...
May 2, 2008 10:38 PM
Should Hillary win Indiana by five percentage points or more, and should Clinton lose North Carolina by five percentage points or less, Obama will be in deep trouble.
Current trending is Obama is losing voter support and Clinton is gaining voter support. On a national level, Clinton is leading McCain and Obama is tied with McCain.
A good performance in Indiana and North Carolina by Clinton will begin to sway super-delegates into supporting Clinton. Those super-delegates will lend support to the most electable candidate, not the most popular.
Obama is looking more a McGovern, Mondale, Gore and Kerry candidate. America is beginning to view Obama as a liberal elitist. This is a sure bet of losing a general election come November.
Clinton is becoming the more electable candidate.
Okpulot Taha
Choctaw Nation