The challenge of unifying Democrats

Tuesday night's presidential primaries in Indiana and North Carolina will not produce a clear winner in a prolonged and, for some, agonizing race for the White House.  The split victories between both candidates will be followed by the perfunctory assertions by the press that Senator Clinton has no real path to victory while Senator Obama has ridden the Black vote all the way to the convention.  The veracity of those statements notwithstanding, a trend among the electorate is developing that the Democratic Party must address to be successful in November and beyond.

Professionals in politics like me are actually thrilled with the ongoing primary process.  More votes and more states have counted now than ever before.  According to many published reports, more than 3.5 million new voters have engaged this process as a result of stellar candidates on the ballot.  Take a look at the campaign rallies.  Thousands of people are attending to hear their candidate of choice and voting in record numbers.  For the Democrats, this could be a sign of a healthy and exciting time, but if not handled well, it will cause irreversible shifts that could damage the party for a generation to come.

Many in the media have cautioned against ghettoizing Obama's campaign.  They are implying that it is not myopic in view and appeal or lacking in sophistication.  That is certainly correct.  Respecting race and ethnicity, remember that many African Americans who fully support Senator Obama now, were hesitant to do so only a few months ago.  South Carolina could very well have been the turning point.

But in three and a half long months since that January 19th referendum, both campaigns have solidified a base of support that is defined less by race and more by class.

A careful look at Senator Clinton's results over the last few months will show that in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana -- places with a heavy industrial heritage -- she does very well among white working class voters.  She's even doing well with white working class men- a group with which she had some difficulty dating back to her first Senate race in New York.  Bear in mind that a large number of her previous base still supports her.  Despite the number and size of Senator Obama's victories, when Hillary has won states, she maintains a good portion of her base among Blacks and white women while picking up increasing blue-collar support along the way.

In fact, her argument for staying in the hunt for the nomination is predicated on this trend.  She can say that these Democrats -- many of them rural -- are exactly the type of voter needed in the general election.  She's correct.  The areas where she has picked up support are analogous to the same geography in which Senator McCain relies on the Republican side.  These are the same voters who could potentially vote for McCain in November should Hillary lose the nomination.

What's more, Barack's base of support has always been among young people and those with higher educational attainment spanning race and ethnicity.  His support seems to be getting stronger among wealthy suburbanites.

Democrats need to be concerned.  The Party was never really prepared for the phenomenon that would become the Obama campaign.  They had no clue how to deal with the third of new Black voters registering as Independent, signaling no distinct affiliation to any major party.  Democratic leaders were also unaware of the growing trend among younger African Americans and Latinos who are increasingly more in step with their white counterparts than their parents.

Republicans have an uphill battle also.  Remember the images of New Orleans after Katrina?  Among the many heart-wrenching Black faces were a good number of poor and disenfranchised whites who will remember that a Republican Administration let them down.  Strangely enough, it's a successful Republican that Democrats should look to as a best example of what to avoid.

In the 1968 presidential race, Richard Nixon, after a bruising first campaign against John Kennedy in 1960, sought to find his voice among his own Republicans who thought he was out of step -- a relic of the past.  He seized on the political unrest surrounding the Civil Rights movement and pointed to the actions of Kennedy and Johnson as evidence that the Democrats were turning a corner in acceptance and support for Blacks and people of color broadly.  Nixon went south to the disaffected Democrats, affectionately called Dixiecrats, to convert them to what we now know as the Republican South. 

We Democrats have a valuable lesson to learn.  As this primary season comes to a close, whomever the victor will have a long haul toward unifying and galvanizing support to win in November.   The seemingly indefatigable media has become weary of covering the race for Democratic gold and is calling for the process to be over.  But that will come soon enough.   Democratic leaders must find a way to bridge the gap in a potentially deep chasm within the party.  It must also look forward and grow its base, being careful not to neglect the very people for whom it once stood.