Four things to look for in the fall campaign

If someone can let me know of a good T-shirt maker, I'd like to order a few million.  The design will be simple. The front reads "IOWA."  On the back, it would say: "We couldn't have done it without you."

I am, of course, referring to the fact that after a year of campaigning, Barack Obama's message and campaign operation met their first real test in a state with less than a 2 percent minority population.  His amazing first-place victory, in my opinion, took Obama's electability off the table.  He proved that his message - delivered by and African American - could be accepted by a part of the population far removed from him historically but now linked economically, spiritually and socially.  But this is no surprise to me.

In February of 2007, I was chastised for a letter I wrote to a Washington-based political blog called the Politico.  The headline - Smikle: Obama Can Win - drew the ire of many in the Democratic Party elite and staunch Hillary supporters because, after all, how could I say something so contrary to conventional wisdom.  There was ample evidence to support their critique.

At that time, Obama's name recognition was at 20 percent - that means 80 percent of the country had never heard of him. He was raising money quickly but we still were oblivious of his fundraising prowess.  Senator Clinton had been the presumptive nominee long before her re-election to the US Senate in 2006. In fact, since Bill Clinton was constitutionally term-limited and Gore lost on a Supreme Court ruling, Hillary Clinton was the next best hope for the party. I believed so as well.  In fact, the Politico's story on my letter clearly stated that, having worked for the Clintons for a few years, I was "squarely in Hillaryland".

My observation about Obama at that time centered on the fact that the Democrats never addressed the  growing influence of the post-civil rights generation of African Americans - the MTV generation plus or minus 6 or 7 years.  This very distinct group among the electorate is unique in its historical significance.  We're a transitional generation.  We have benefited from the work of the freedom fighting soldiers of the Civil Rights era and are a direct result of the affirmative action policies of the 70s and 80s that created the black millionaires and billionaires we sometimes take for granted today - Earl Graves, Bob Johnson and Oprah alike.

Indeed the generation in question, of which I'm a member at 36 years old, grew up in diverse times.  We have experienced that harshness of the crack epidemic of the 80s and 90s; the rise of hip-hop music and culture; The neutralizing of racial lines thanks to Arsenio Hall, Kanye West and BET/MTV; the ability to go to top tier schools; work in the most elite companies while golfing, shopping, hunting, and Vinyard-ing with our White colleagues. 

Meanwhile, the political old-guard had no idea we existed, which led to no explanation for the Obama successes in state after state, and in raising money.  That was the ultimate shock perpetrated by a wonderfully executed campaign and a tremendous candidate.  But as we revel in the historical events of Tuesday night, we should remember that the Republicans are not to go down lightly.  The inability of the Democratic Party to make hay of this new generation of political leader means the Republican Party will be less inclined to do so as we move toward a general election in November.

There are at least four things you should expect in the months ahead:

1. No Presidential candidate can with their Party's support alone.  He needs Republicans and Independents to win.  Expect for him to take positions that are necessarily more moderate and conservative.  Much of Obama's criticism has been that he doesn't expound upon his policy positions.  They will get fleshed out soon enough but it may not be everything you expect.


2. The media scrutiny will intensify.  Media has been reluctant to admit they have been very kind to Barack Obama but acknowledge they got harder on Hillary Clinton.  Strange.  But now that the drama of Clinton v. Obama has subsided, the Tim Russerts and Chris Matthews of the world are squarely focused on the Democratic standard-bearer.


3. As stated earlier, much of the country doesn't know how to accept Barack Obama - the Harvard educated, intellectually and politically gifted candidate.  Look for the Republicans to paint him as the stereotypical angry Black Man they're used to railing against on the talk-show circuit.  If you thought the connection to  Rev. Wright was overblown and out of context, be prepared for something entirely more displeasing.  They will surely use Wright in the same way Bush used Willie Horton against Dukakis in 1988.


4. Rest assured that we'll hear a lot of talk about his inexperience being the Achilles heel. Perhaps that is a real shortcoming. But we shouldn't dismiss the influence of race and class. Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell himself acknowledged that there are large numbers of white voters in his state that would "never vote for a Black man". Barack will also be painted as an elitist in an effort to win over middle class and poor whites - particularly males.
   

This campaign season has been both heartbreaking (as I watch my former boss in her bid to become President) and exhilarating as we bear witness to the gravity of the history being made here and now.  But there is much more to come. 

Barack Obama has proven that he's a transcendent candidate - one that can break many barriers.  The people of Iowa, though not the first to see this, were the first to send the message to the rest of the country that we are ready for an African American to be President.  So, if someone wants to take me up on my T-shirt idea, just give me credit for the concept.