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Obama's Black Vote Dilemma
Earl Ofari Hutchinson | Posted June 25, 2008 5:05 PMPresumptive Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has a dilemma. And that's how to rev up even more black voters without revving up white voter backlash. It's a tough one. Because on the one hand there is something to the conventional political wisdom that black voters at least on paper can make or break the fortunes of a Democratic presidential nominee. But a too open court of black voters carries the real risk that this could alienate white voters while fanning the delusion that a Democrat can win the general election with the black vote.
Obama first took the gamble with black voters in the South Carolina primary in January. When he needed a surge there he called on Oprah, and she delivered. She made a blatant racial pitch for blacks to vote for him, and they delivered. Thousands more turned out than did in the 2004 primary, and they gave him more than 90 percent of their vote. But that's the dilemma. Obama has done everything to avoid the tag of being the black presidential candidate. That would be the political kiss of death for him. But as Oprah and South Carolina showed, black voters are Obama's staple. Their vote and enthusiasm for him has grown in every primary that he competed against Hillary Clinton. Without the massive and rock solid backing of black voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana, states that he lost to Clinton, his defeat would have been even more crushing.
Black votes weren't enough to put him over the top in the big states against Clinton. But he being black, and with blacks giddily waving his banner, that almost certainly set off bells and whistles among many white voters. The same exit polls that consistently showed that Obama did phenomenally well with black voters also showed that he bombed badly with blue collar whites, rural voters, older middle income white women, and Latinos, and they are Democrats too. Without their backing no Democratic presidential candidate can win the White House. In exit polls in the must win battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, as well as West Virginia, and Kentucky, a significant percent of these Democrats warned that if Obama is the candidate they will vote for Obama rival Republican presidential candidate John McCain or stay home.
This is the prime reason Obama has again taken the risky gamble of making a cautious pitch for a massive black vote turnout. Obama banks that if the threat of mass defection by Hillary Democrats to McCain or simply a lackluster turnout by them turns out to be more than an angry idle threat, a full throttle press to get even greater numbers of blacks to the polls can offset loss of their votes.
But this shaky assumption rests squarely on the notion that the black vote wins presidential elections. It doesn't.
In 2000, black voters made up nearly 11 percent of the overall voter. They gave the Democratic presidential contender Al Gore 90 percent of their vote. In 2004, black voters made up nearly 12 percent of the vote and gave Democratic presidential contender John Kerry 88 percent of the vote. Gore and Kerry lost.
In 2004, then presidential contender Howard Dean openly worried that Democrats could not beat Bush unless they got a bigger share of white male votes. He quipped that the Democrats had to court beer-guzzling white guys who wave the Confederate flag. That brought howls of protests from Dean's Democratic rivals and the charge that Dean was pandering to unreconstructed bigots to get more white votes in his column.
A chastised Dean got it right. He simply crunched the numbers and recognized that white males make up more than one-third of the electorate. In 2000, exit polling showed that while white women backed Bush over Gore by 3 percentage points, white men backed him by 27 percentage points. Four years later the margin was 26 points for Bush over Kerry among white males. And since Kerry made only a weak, half-hearted effort to court white male voters in the South, Bush got nearly seventy percent of the white male vote there, and a second sweep of the South and a second term.
Black voters are crucial to Obama. They have done more than any other group to help him bag the Democratic presidential nomination. He desperately needs them to win. The dilemma is their votes won't be nearly enough for him to bag the White House.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst whose new book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House.
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2008-06-25 17:48:42
How dare you come now, like a roach in the seam of a brown paper bag and try to discredit and disavow Barack Obama!
KASHA!
When you wrote that your mother could "pass for white" and that she was OH-SO-KIND to the majority neighborhood darkies and taught you to be fair and kind as well, it became clear to many authentic Black Women what kind of two-faced ingrate you are.
First you deny the true life experiences of 90% of black women in White Socialized Cultures, all based on your "white looking" mother's handing cookies to darkies from the back door, then you try to berate and crucify Barack Obama.
The truth is--you're JEALOUS of Barack.
You're frightened that if his Presidency brings about a "Post-racial" America (which by the way is impossible), then you won't have a way of making money and publicity out of RACE issues anymore. You're jealous because he's Half-African, Half-White American, a KENYAN-AMERICAN, and that his strategically sound ALTERNATIVE MENTALITY didn't preclude him from being President.
Unlike you, Obama didn't sit on the radio posturing and ego-stroking while looking down his nose at the mother of our race. He endeavored to DO SOMETHING!
While Barack Obama is a Biracial person, automatically labeled "black" by White supremacist acculturation, he will always have the right to speak out about black issues to the extent that he and his wife have personally experienced those issues---but by the same token, OBAMA is NOT running for "President of Black folk", he is running to be the President of a majority white nation that is also the most powerful nation on earth, the United States.
I am not campaigning for Obama because I care about "political issues and political policies." I don't give a d__ about policies.
I am supporting Obama and Michelle, because this IMAGE that they present will be the healthiest and most powerful image that Black Human beings have received "about themselves," "about the BLACK FAMILY" in a long time. I truly feel that Obama and his IMAGE repesents the end of the BET era and I have written that in public many, many times.
Barack Obama's Presidency represents the end of the BET era. We can now once again embrace the IMAGE of a "black family," of a beautiful and strong "black mother" and of INTEGRITY for one's purpose in life. In every way, I see that Obama has "AFFIRMED" black people by choosing a wife who symbolizes the "US" in US and by choosing not to "run away" from the adversity of black life--something more "Malcolm-esque" than what has become generally "cool" for self-deatructing black men.
Men like yourself claim that Obama has "attacked" black men and that women writers like myself "hate black men"...but the FACT is...black men hate they damned selves!
I have grown tired of trying to prove to black men how much I love them, because it has become so obvious that "quite a lot of them" can't handle the simply wonderful experience of BEING black. They blame me (and my black womb) for making them black. Then expect me to accept "disrespect" and "invisibility" for it.
But this is why someone like you can never tell me anything about Barack Obama.
Like so many black women (and I happen to be one from Africa)...I will NEVER forgive you EARL OFARI HUTCHISON for the ignorant and despotic WHITE-like b.s. you wrote in the WASHINGTON POST about Marita Golden's book "Don't Play In the Dark." Your reaction to the book PROVED that you are not black and that you have not experienced the full spectrum of black life. You're just another incarnation of "Old Yeller" trying to make a quick buck off black men's constant disarray.
Barack Obama would never have betrayed us as you did!
2008-06-26 06:20:49
And after reading Earl's article I thought, but why would anyone even doubt that Obama will always have the black backing, whether he actively campaigns for it or not and especially if even Algore or Kerry can muster 90% of it.
Anyway I dont think Obama needs to overtly campaign for the black vote, especially because black people know that obvious fact Earl mentions that this will put him in a hard position with respect to racists. They will just support him regardless. Black voters are not that stupid.What I'm really shocked about though is the Latino vote. I thought they were actually black? But it seems they are in a race of their own
Anyway, ultimately I dont know the details of Kola's gripe with Earl. But it does seem true that Earl's historical work has been quite preoccupied with the meanings of race. And it is interesting that Kola thinks Obama's delivery for black America might just crash that 'racial complex'.
2008-06-26 07:04:41
2008-06-26 07:28:44
Maybe she was having a really bad day when she just made no sense to me and in fact was quite insensitive. But here it's quite different. She also just does seem like a passionate committed individual whether to the wrong cause or not. Personally I like that. Long as her passion does not drive her insane
2008-06-26 08:14:59
2008-06-26 12:40:11
2008-06-26 15:38:12
You asked--"what African would describe themselves as 'Nilotic Sudanese'?
Well let me break it down for your dumb ass.
Those of us who are from the Blue Nile region and are NOT Nubian, Dinka, Shilluk, Nuer or any of the Cushitic tribes, refer to ourselves simply as "Nilotic." My birth parents were both immigrants to Sudan (guess you didn't have that bit of information). My father, Harith Bin Farouk was Arab Egyptian from Kom Ombo, Egypt, his family The Kolbookeks are part Turkish. He purchased my mother, Jiddi, from the Gisi family of the Waaq tribe, which is a coffee-bean raising portion of what we call the OROMO race, a much larger tribe that resides in three countries. I am an Egypto-Gisi-Waaq Oromo since you want the long version.
The term "Nilotic" is also used by us to denote hair styles, cultural dress modes and "slang talk." So why in the hell would those of us who are NILOTIC not differentiate from those who are BANTU or SWAHILI?
Anyone born on the Nile River (the White Nile or the Blue Nile) are NILOTIC. I am born on the Nile in OMDURMAN, SUDAN, therefore, I am Nilotic Sudanese
You're the one who doesn't know what the hell you're talking about, but that's so typical of some arrogant Americans when they deign to DICTATE how African people would or would not speak about their own identity.
Finally, the reason that I do not post on this board very often is because of "Purl Gurl." I despise that person and don't want to be BANNED from the board for attacking her as I am known not to mince words--especially curse words. Keith Boykin can attest to that, and I don't want Keith to ban me or be upset with me. I am a well known author, the National Chairwoman of SSPP and have been published as a contributor to this site.
My White Boyfriends and I really don't give a damn what you think about which children we chose to have and not to have.
2008-06-26 15:41:24
2008-06-26 15:52:19
2008-06-27 00:15:12
I am flattered to learn you are intimidated by my intellectual prowess.
Kola Boof continues by providing a hyperlink where this preface is read, "This article was written by KEVIN JOHNSON originally for 'Black Star News.'"
Oh my. Black Star News is known as the "Al Jazeera" of Black America. Black Star News is known for being a hate site on par with the Ku Klux Klan.
My experiences at Black Star News are less than endearing. I advised editors at Black Star News I would be testing their support of Freedom of Speech and testing for bigotry. This note was provided before my participation at Black Star News.
My testing yielded very disturbing knowledge. I found Black Star News edits comments by participants to change a writer's context. I also discovered editors at Black Star News change an author's words, actually edit out original words then substitute in their own words without alerting readers of this editing.
This censorship and fabrication of false words in place of words of others is abhorrently unethical.
Black Star News is hate site, nothing more.
A consequence is I have dropped Black Star News into my intellectual trash can, right alongside the Ku Klux Klan and Al Jazeera.
Being associated with Black Star News is not a point of pride for people rather is a condemnation of being a hateful racist.
Long back, my first article here at The Daily Voice was in response to Keith's announcement of starting up this web site. I wished Keith best of luck and advised Keith I would be testing for censorship, editing and bigotry, just as I did for Black Star News. This website, The Daily Voice, passed my tests with flying colors. Keith maintains a Freedom of Speech protected site, does not engage in unwarranted censorship and most certainly never changes participants words. Keith displays both respect for participants and displays a high degree of tolerance. Keith is to be highly commended for his lending to diversity in opinion and his support for Freedom of Speech. The Daily Voice is an excellent, high quality media for dialog between people and cultures.
Black Star News, using their pages for toilet paper would be an insult to my dignity.
Okpulot Taha
Choctaw Nation
2008-06-27 00:46:09
This is highly problematic. There is a real fear involved with this challenge for Obama. This is a fear of the "Angry Black Man" syndrome.
As with your words, Earl, there will be those who will strongly object to my words despite being realistic in nature.
Many people, regardless of skin color, are fearful of Black America attaining too much power over America. Setting aside minority control as contrary to democratic ideals, many people are fearful Obama's presidency will become a vindictive presidency but not on the part of Obama. This vindictive nature is well exemplified by an ongoing effort to create guilt and shame for white Americans because of bad past events which are not the fault of today's peoples.
Adding to this fear is a history of Black America effecting horrific rioting during periods of recent history. While this is not fair to paint Black America with a broad brush, people do experience a real fear much like this fear created by the Islamic rioting around our world over cartoons of Mohammed. There is no need for me to discuss this abhorrent rioting by some of Black America as we are all aware of history.
End result of this "Angry Black Man" syndrome, rioting by blacks and other disturbing behaviors is a real and true fear amongst many people, again, regardless of skin color. Reality is these behaviors and events are on the minds of the many, fair or not. Mine is not to debate whether or not this fear is just, rather mine is to acknowledge this fear does exists.
Should Obama, who is a typical politician, pander to Black America, there is no doubt this fear people feel will be heightened and these people will not vote for Obama. Many are fearful Obama will overpopulate his administration, our courts, public servant positions and other positions of power, overpopulate our government with Black Americans leading to a black agenda being effected. This will not settle well with people and will contribute to a greater fear.
I will be succinct at risk of reader wrath, people are fearful of extremism and black racism aimed at white Americans should Obama specifically pander, politically, to Black America.
Okpulot Taha
Choctaw Nation
2008-06-27 02:49:15
2008-06-27 06:51:44
Personally, I don't write anyone off based on some views they may have presented at some point in history, unless one is really like a George Bush. Normally I'd write off the particular view and wait for the change of mind or heart. So I am not really interested in cult figures as brands, but the current going-ons in people's minds. People change, and often by a great deal
2008-06-27 10:01:54
2008-06-28 23:31:34
2008-07-01 14:25:27
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