Obama's risky gamble on affirmative action

During the 2004 Senate race in Illinois against GOP carpetbagger candidate Alan Keyes, presumptive Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama slammed President Bush for siding with the white students in their lawsuit against the University of Michigan. They sued to dump the school's race based affirmative action programs. Obama made an unabashed pitch for colleges, and by extension other public agencies, to keep programs that give a leg up to minorities; that is racial minorities.

This was more than campaign rhetoric against a hapless opponent. Six years earlier, Smart Vote asked him during his run for a spot in the Illinois legislature where he stood on affirmative action programs. He passed what he called their Political Courage Test when he flatly said "yes" that race is a vital, even indispensable, factor in public employment, college and university admissions, and state contracting. This wasn't bluster to bag the seat in the legislature. He was as good his word.  Every time an affirmative action related issue was on the legislative table, Obama could be counted on to back race-backed programs and hiring preferences.

But that was Obama as state legislator and Senate candidate and for a short time as Senator. Obama as presidential contender is a far different matter. Obama has inched closer than any other Democratic presidential contender, and that includes Bill Clinton who did his own retool of affirmative action, to ring the curtain ring down on race and gender, but especially race, based affirmative action programs.

Obama's done a volte-face on affirmative action, say defenders, because the spectacular gains of blacks and women in business and professions make affirmative action passé, or because it's a matter of fairness. Or it's simply the politically smart thing to do to get more white votes with little danger of alienating his rabid black supporters.

There's some truth in these excuses. But there's also myth, political delusion and danger in them too. Studies show that blacks and women have made big gains in employment and in gaining college entrance in the past decade. But they have also lost a lot of ground too. The overwhelming majority of corporate managers and top executives are white males. The piles of discrimination lawsuits and EEOC complaints against major corporations and government agencies by black and women employees over discrimination in hiring and promotion still tell a sad story of sneaky and sometimes rampant racial discrimination. Meanwhile, the number of blacks, especially black males, has drastically slowed at many colleges. At the same time many public, local and state governmental agencies have gutted, revamped, or dumped their affirmative action programs.

Obama says that poor whites have gotten the short end of the stick in business and professions. This supposedly makes class rather than race-based affirmative action programs more relevant. However, even if affirmative action were completely overhauled to take in class and not race need, studies show that blacks are still the poorest, neediest and most excluded group. They would still be the prime beneficiaries of need-based affirmative action programs. Dropping the race factor would merely promote the illusion that color is no issue in who is the most likely to get hired, promoted, and enter college.

This leaves politics, or rather political expediency, as the real reason for Obama's shift. The political calculus is that this will take the issue away from Republican rival John McCain and GOP conservatives. More immediately, it defuses it as a potential wedge issue for McCain in Nebraska, Colorado and Arizona. These are the states that Ward Connerly has dumped his anti-affirmative action initiative.

This is wishful thinking.  Connerly is a staunch Republican and McCain backer. And nailing affirmative action programs has long been the trump card in the GOP's racial hit deck. It stretches credulity too think that a back flip by a Democrat who's been unwavering in backing race-based affirmative action programs for most of his legislative career, and is still widely regarded as a liberal Democrat will serve as an added spur for conservatives to break ranks with McCain. That's especially true since Obama opposes the Connerly initiatives at the same time that he backpedals on affirmative action. It's just as unlikely that Obama's epiphany on affirmative action will damp down the number of voters who will turn out to back the initiatives. They will also likely back McCain who solidly backs the initiatives.

If anything McCain is a double winner on affirmative action. He can insist that he still strongly backs equal opportunity and just as strongly opposes discrimination. He can then make the standard anti-affirmative action pitch that he backs the Connerly initiative precisely because it strikes a blow against discrimination, namely racial preferences.

Obama's affirmative action volte-face is yet another political gamble that by moving rightward on a contentious issue he can snatch white votes away from the GOP. It's a risky gamble.