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Understanding the polls: Who's up? Who's down? How much? Who cares?

Mario Brossard | Posted September 26, 2008 9:24 AM

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During the past week, after the federal government's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the purchase of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America, and the proposed rescue package for the AIG insurance company, a number of new poll results have hit the airwaves. Many are looking to these new polls to help them understand what impact, if any, this financial crisis is having on the 2008 presidential election.

Understandably there has been much confusion about the somewhat disparate results of these national surveys. While all the recently released public polls show Senator Barack Obama leading Senator John McCain nationally, the size of that lead is being disputed. The polls place Senator Obama's lead at anywhere from two to nine percentage points over Senator McCain. Indeed, the ABC News/Washington Post poll showing Obama with a 52 percent to 43 percent advantage over McCain is being roundly attacked in some circles as an outlier not truly reflecting the current state of the presidential race.

Presidential Preference

Poll Sponsor Obama v. McCain Difference

ABC News/Washington Post 52% 43% 9%

9/19-22/2008

Fox News 45% 39% 6%

9/22-23/2008

The Hotline/Diageo (Daily Tracking) 48% 42% 6%

9/24/2008

NBC News/Wall Street Journal 48% 46% 2%

9/19-22/2008

Are the critics correct, or does the ABC/Post poll accurately reflect the nation's presidential preference at this stage of the campaign? The answer is "Yes" the critics are correct and "Yes" the ABC/Post poll does accurately reflect the nation's presidential preference at this stage of the campaign.

The critics of the poll are correct about it not being an exact picture of the presidential race. They are correct because no one poll can ever be considered to be unequivocally precise, particularly as it relates to a moving target like presidential vote preference. On the other hand, the ABC/Post poll should be considered to be a good reflection of the state of this race because all the ABC/Post horserace number really suggests is that Barack Obama is ahead of John McCain today--which is exactly what every other public poll released this week has confirmed. Even conservative Fox News released a poll showing Obama ahead by 6 percentage points.

Quibbling over whether his lead is actually nine percentage points or two percentage points, in my view, misses the real point. The real substance contained in all the polls released this week is that we are now at a critical juncture in this election, and in the current environment wrought with financial meltdown after financial meltdown the American public is responding to Obama's message and economic themes. This should be more of a concern to Republican and conservative critics of the ABC News/Washington Post poll than whether Obama leads by two, or six, or nine percentage points.

Every national poll that enters the public realm must be considered in context--the context of that poll in relation to other national polls released around the same time, as well as the environmental context of issues and problems with which the nation is grappling. In regard to the environmental context, it should be remembered that only ten days ago Senator McCain declared that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong." This was an analysis, it appears, that many Americans found difficult to swallow.

The other questions in the ABC/Post survey (yes, there actually were other questions) show that a majority (53%) of Americans say that the single most important issue in their choice for president is the economy, jobs and the stock market, and when it comes to the economy, they say they trust Barack Obama more than they trust John McCain (53% to 39%) to handle the economy. Given that context, it is entirely reasonable to conclude that Obama is leading McCain today and may potentially pull away and open up a substantial margin over the next couple of weeks, depending upon the continued import of the economy as an issue in this election relative to other issues. Again, this is what should be of most concern to the GOP, not how much McCain is losing by but rather that he is losing ground and in the current political environment he may not recover.

Looking at the NBC News/WSJ internal poll results we also see that a majority (57%) of respondents tell NBC and the Wall Street Journal that economic issues, including job losses, home foreclosures, and energy prices will be the most important to them in deciding for whom they will vote in the presidential election. The poll also found that the voting public trusts Obama more than McCain to improve the economy, 46 percent to 34 percent. The irony here is that although the underlying themes of both polls are the same (It's the economy, stupid!), the ABC News/Washington Post poll and the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll were conducted on exactly the same days and finished the furthest apart in measuring presidential preference among all the public polls released in the past few days.

The truth here, as with most things political, probably lies somewhere in the middle. Senator Obama is most likely leading Senator McCain by between four and six percentage points nationally. Yet, if one really wants to understand how this election is going to turn out it's the polls in the swing states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Michigan that people should really be watching.

Mario Brossard is a Vice President with Peter D. Hart Research Associates and the former assistant director of polling for The Washington Post.

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Comments 8

P
2008-09-26 11:17:09

Thank you, Mr. Brossard for your analysis. I personally think that there is too much emphasis on poll numbers. Not that polling is not essential, but when the numbers BECOME the news, they become a dangerous distraction in the lead-up to this epic election. Thanks again, sir.

PulSamsara
2008-09-26 12:01:01

I Care ! ------------------- Just LOOK around YOU ! Piss-Poor State-Craft... A Bungled Economy... Is this the America you remember growing up? So where does the Buck Stop NOW ? Why would America REWARD complete Republican failure ? We wont.

jay
2008-09-26 12:38:04

Good article but polls mean nothing. We will see what happens on Nov 4th. Obama 08

John
2008-09-27 03:22:14

Obama '08. It is to laugh. Abortion mills in black and Hispanic neighborhoods that are tantamount to genocide. Calls himself a Christian and yet surrounds himself with members of the Nation of Islam, Islamic Brotherhood, and Hamas not to mention domestic terrorists and racist Pastors. Claims to cut taxes for 95% when in fact 1/3 don't pay any taxes to cut. Is this claim of his a lie or the result of ignorance? Publically calls for the immediate withdrawl of all troops from Iraq while at the very same time travels to Iraq to prevent their withdrawl until after the election. Keep swallowing the Democrat Kool-Aid black community and you'll keep getting hucksters and liars for leaders and nothing will ever change. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over(pulling the Democrat lever) expecting a different result.

Tina
2008-09-27 09:54:18

Amen John, thanks for setting it straight for these emotional liberals who "hope" for change, but change is action not an emotion. Change is making hard decisions and stances while not changing your mind 500 times based on how the left wing reacts. I am an independent and am horrified that someone with the lack of experience Obama presents has the chance to be the president of our country. People discuss Sarah Palin as a unqualified VP...yeah right, the top of the Democrat ticket is so much more unexperienced it is not remotely close.

truthy
2008-09-27 10:05:18

Give it up, John. You're not John McCain, are you? Considering how unfocused and hard to follow your rant is, maybe you ARE John McCain. For the record, true insanity would be to elect John McCain which would be to award the presidency to the same party that has led us to this metaphorical cliff from which we are presently dangling. You guys must really be desperate to be bringing up the Nation of Islam! A word of advice: go find a paper bag to hyperventilate into and spare us, PLEASE.

truthy
2008-09-27 10:14:50

Tina, you are probably sitting in the middle of the McCain spin room, sipping on a huge beaker of neocon kool-aid. Do you think we are stupid? With regard to Sarah Palin, you must be kidding! Surely you jest, don't you? Palin pales in comparison to Barack Obama. Pun intended! The woman cannot even hold an intelligent conversation. It is terrifying that she could be next in line for the office of President of the United States. If you really believe what you have written here, clearly you are not the sharpest knife in the drawer either! Have you even SEEN the Katie Couric interview? This is like the twilight zone. Give it up, lady.

truthy
2008-09-27 10:17:56

John, my apologies. What was I thinking? John McCain is too technologically illiterate to be engaged in an online discussion board. My bad!

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