No October surprise

So here we are on October 31. It's Halloween, the last day of October in a presidential election year, and so far there have been no last minute surprises to shake up the race.

There has been no dramatic capture of Osama bin Laden, no secret tape of Michelle Obama calling out "whitey," and no damning video from Barack Obama's past.

Democrats are understandably nervous about all this. We're not used to winning elections.

I worked on or volunteered for five losing campaigns before I finally found a winner in Bill Clinton in 1992. Even in that race, I could hardly believe it until the night of the election. While I worked in the campaign office in Little Rock throughout the fall, I kept waiting for the "other shoe to drop." It never did.

But Bill Clinton was white. Surely it couldn't be this easy to elect a black guy for president? Or could it?

The New York Times reported this morning that 12 percent of the population says they've already cast their ballots in early voting, 90 percent say they've made up their minds, and the majority of them say they're voting for Obama. In addition, state polls show that Obama is ahead in every state that John Kerry won in 2004 and in several states that George Bush won. Obama has a big enough lead to carry at least 311 electoral votes, well over the 270 needed to win the presidency. Obama's position is so strong that he could conceivably lose Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida and still win the election.

Those are astounding numbers. That is, if you believe the polls. That's a big "if" for some black people. Many of us will believe it when we see it on election day. It just seems too good to be true.

But dramatic change often comes when it's least expected and most resisted.

Imagine what black slaves felt like in 1865 when the Civil War ended and America's "peculiar institution" was abolished. I bet they could hardly believe it.

Imagine how women felt in 1920 when the ratification of the 19th Amendment finally gave them the right to vote.

Imagine how black schoolchildren felt in 1954 when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that government segregated schools were inherently unequal and unconstitutional.

That's the way a lot of African Americans and others may feel next Tuesday if Barack Obama wins the presidency. Suddenly, the impossible seems possible. The one thing you thought was only distantly attainable is now within reach. Yes America could elect a black president, and Americans of all colors are starting to believe it. Change doesn't come easily, but it does come if you believe in and work for it.

Today's New York Times poll also uncovered some encouraging information about the future. Barack Obama's campaign has already changed some perceptions of race in America, the Times reported. Nearly two-thirds of those polled said whites and blacks have an equal chance of getting ahead in today's society, up from half who said they thought so in July.

Perhaps Americans are becoming more comfortable with the idea of a black president and more optimistic about the future under his leadership. For some people, that may be the biggest surprise of all this October.