Running out of time

Senator John McCain is still wearing his game face, but with just eight days left in the campaign, the Arizona senator is running out of time to save his bid for the White House.

As of Monday morning, national polls showed Senator Barack Obama with a 7 point lead over his GOP rival and state-by-state polls were even more discouraging for McCain.

Obama leads in every state that John Kerry won in 2004 and in several states that Bush won in that election, according to the latest polls at Real Clear Politics. Obama leads in enough states to hold 306 electoral votes compared to 157 for McCain. Only 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.

Since the financial crisis hit on September 15, McCain's fortunes have tumbled with the stock market. Except for McCain's play for Pennsylvania, which many view as a long shot for the Republicans, the final weeks of the campaign have been spent almost entirely on Republican turf that McCain and his running mate Alaska Governor Sarah Palin have been struggling to defend.

Aware of the potential effect of the polls, McCain and Palin have taken to accusing the Democrats of celebrating too early and "measuring the drapes" in the White House. 

Governor Palin even tried a basketball metaphor over the weekend to suggest the Democrats are cocky and overconfident. "Barack Obama and I both have spent quite some time on the basketball court," she said. "But where I come from, you have to win the game before you start cutting down the net."

But with eight days to go, and McCain's messages failing to get any real traction in the polls, is there anything left in the Republican arsenal that might work? Is there an October surprise, and if so, when would it happen? October ends on Friday.

Perhaps a bit belatedly, Senator McCain's campaign is running almost as aggressively against George W. Bush as it is against Barack Obama. The opening page on McCain's web site begins with a video critique of the Bush Administration in which the candidate explains that the last eight years haven't worked out very well for Americans. 

Given the president's historically low approval ratings, the distance from Bush may make sense. But is it too little, too late for the Republican nominee?

The McCain campaign has tried message after message against Obama this month and none of them seem to have worked in the polls. The Republicans have accused Obama of "palling around with terrorists," accused him of "socialist" tendencies, blamed him for wanting to "redistribute wealth," called him "the most liberal senator" in the U.S. Senate, and argued that Obama hasn't stood up to his own party. They've appealed to "hockey moms," Joe six-packs and Joe the plumber, but they haven't found a way to win over independents.

New polls out last week showed that independent voters tend to favor Obama and that a majority of voters express concern over McCain's selection of his running mate. That's led to some finger pointing from inside the McCain campaign.

CNN and Politico.com have reported that some McCain officials have formed a "circular firing squad" as they blame one another for the failure of the campaign. One unnamed official even called Palin a "diva" who was uncooperative with the campaign message.

Republicans are also hearing conflicting advice on the television. Some pundits point to polls that Palin is a drag on the ticket while others argue that she has energized the conservative base. But with the base shrinking and party identification tilting toward the Democrats, the GOP needs to win over independents if it hopes to retain the White House.

To make matters worse, Republicans are abandoning the McCain-Palin ticket publicly in recent days. Former Massachusetts Governor William Weld, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, former Bush Administration spokesman Scott McClellan and former Minnesota Governor Arne Carlson have all publicly announced their support for Obama.

It's gotten so bad that conservative leaders like David Frum have argued that it's time for Republicans to abandon the presidential race and focus on the Senate contests instead. Writing in the Washington Post, Frum argues that "our resources are limited, and our message is failing."

"We cannot fight on all fronts," says Frum. "We are cannibalizing races that we must win and probably can win in order to help a national campaign that is almost certainly lost. In these final 10 days, our goal should be: senators first."