A Viewer's Guide To Election Night: A Pollster's Eye-View

Now that all the pre-election polling and almost all of the presidential campaigning is behind us, what should you be focusing on tonight to figure out how this presidential election is going to ultimately turn out? There will be a number of clues that should help the political junkie in you figure out who the next president will be before the television networks make the final call this evening.

I believe that one of the most important early indicators will come between 7 and 8 o'clock EST. If the networks are confident enough in the outcome in Virginia and call the race in the Old Dominion for Obama soon after the polls close there at 7 .m., we will know that the polling leading up to the election in Virginia was correct and that the Democrat has broken the stranglehold the Republicans have had on the south for decades. This will suggest that he should also be competitive in places like North Carolina (7:30 poll closing), Florida (8:00 poll closing) and perhaps Georgia (7:00 poll closing). It will send a clear signal that John McCain is in big electoral trouble.

Next, one should pay attention to voter turnout. If the networks show pictures of extremely long lines at polling places around the nation, particularly in the battleground states, this will suggest that Democrats--and thus Obama--will have an advantage. In just about every presidential election year for as long as I can remember, Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in party registration by 3 to 5 percentage points. (The only exception was in 2004 when both Democrats and Republicans represented 37 percent of voters, with the rest being independents.) 

This year all reports indicate that the Obama ground campaign has done an excellent job of registering new voters. They have done such a good job that new registration figures show that for every new Republican voter who registered to vote this year, two Democratic voters registered. The challenge for Democrats has always been in getting their voters to turn out on Election Day. Long lines at the polls will suggest that they have met this challenge this year.

Just as importantly, election night viewers should pay attention to exit poll results highlighting how certain demographic voting blocks are casting their ballots. It is a safe bet to assume that at least 9 out of 10 African Americans will be voting for Obama, given the historic nature of this election as well as the proportions of blacks who supported him during the primary season.

One of the most telling questions is who working-class whites will support once they get behind the curtain. During the primaries Obama struggled among this demographic, defined as whites without a college degree and who earn less than $50,000 annually. The fear for the Obama campaign is that if he couldn't capture a significant portion of this group among progressive Democratic primary voters, how will he fare with these white voters in the more conservative general election population?

Another important demographic to watch will be white women, particularly white suburban women. Women overall tend to represent anywhere from 52 to 55 percent of the electorate in general elections, with white women comprising the vast majority of these female voters. Whichever candidate wins among white women across the country will more than likely win this election. If a majority of suburban white women support McCain it will suggest that he will be competitive and the election will probably be close. If these soccer moms support Obama it will suggest that McCain's goose is cooked.

Less important, yet interesting to watch will be the youth vote. Since at least 1992 when Bill Clinton first ran for president, if not before, pollsters have been pointing to the youth vote as a potentially important block of voters in presidential elections. The problem with these voters, generally defined as those between 18 and 29, is that they are not a particularly dependable group of voters. In almost every presidential election they have disappointed the pundits in regard to their numbers on Election Day as it relates to their proportion in the universe of all registered voters.

In the last two presidential elections youth voters have represented 17 percent of the overall electorate.  The last time young people were an important factor was in 1992 when they represented 22 percent of all voters. According to the polls, young people this year are largely supporting Obama--at least in word if not in deed.  It remains to be seen whether young people will actually turn out in numbers high enough to actually make a difference this year. If young voters step up and increase their proportion to between 22 and 25 percent of all voters it will likely be a huge boost for Obama.

Perhaps most important, will be the reasons why voters tell exit pollsters they are coming out to vote.  Since the middle of September when the U.S. financial crisis began, pollsters have witnessed a significant swing in the electorate toward Barack Obama. Majorities of voters have indicated that they trust Obama more than McCain to handle the economy. Just yesterday, NBC News and The Wall Street Journal released a poll taken over the weekend that found 42 percent saying they have either "a great deal" or "quite a bit" of confidence that Obama will be able to get the country's economy back on track. That is compared with just 27 percent who say the same about McCain.

If a significant plurality of voters is motivated by the current condition of the American economy, it will bode well for Obama. If however, more voters are motivated by the candidates' experience or by fear of another terrorist attack, McCain will be very competitive.

Regardless of who you will be rooting for tonight, the most important thing is to make sure you get out and vote. Let your voice be heard today so you can sit back and hear it resonate this evening.  And don't forget to pay attention to all the clues that will certainly be out there waiting for you as you watch.