The man who would be senator

Moments after Barack Obama made history in last week's election, pundits began speculating about replacements for the new president-elect and vice president-elect in the United States Senate.

Biden's home state of Delaware and Obama's home state of Illinois are both reliably Democratic with Democratic governors. So naturally the political observers wondered who would replace the two senators headed to the White House and whether the outgoing senators would exert any influence in selecting their replacements.

With plenty of people vying for the newly open seats, the president-elect and vice-president-elect have wisely deferred to the actual decision makers: Governor Rod Blagojevich in Illinois and Governor Ruth Ann Minner of Delaware. But that hasn't stopped the speculation, especially about the prospect of replacing the nation's only African American U.S. senator with another African American.

In Illinois, "No one is better suited to fill the seat than U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr." That's the word from an editorial in The SouthtownStar of Illinois this week. The article is conveniently posted on Jackson's personal web site.

"For 13 years, we've watched Jackson up close. He is one of Congress' most reliable advocates for the middle class while supporting economic development for large and small businesses alike," said the paper. It praised Jackson for bringing home the bacon in the form of valuable infrastructure projects but not bringing home pork. "There are no bridges to nowhere," the editorial said. "He is not afraid to call out wasteful spending when he sees it."

But the real issue is whether Jackson can win a statewide election in two years when Obama's term expires. "Although downstate voters aren't shy about their distrust of the Rev. Jesse Jackson, Jackson Jr. is not his father's cutout," the newspaper responds, suggesting that Jackson could take a page out of Obama's successful 2004 strategy and travel to every corner of the state.

The newspaper acknowledged that Jackson has a history of "tension" with the governor and with former state senate president Emil Jones, but it asked Blagojevich to "see beyond the narrow disagreements of Illinois' diverse Democratic Party."

At 43, Jackson would enter the Senate at roughly the same age as Obama did four years ago. And like Obama, he would bring with him a star power to the seat. Jackson, who like Obama is African American, might be famous even if he hadn't won election to Congress, in part, because of his famous, but sometimes controversial, father. As a co-chair of Obama's presidential campaign, Jackson made a point of distancing himself from controversial remarks made by his father during the campaign.

For blacks in Illinois, there's an opporutnity to make history again. The state has a tradition of electing African Americans to the Senate. Obama himself followed in the footsteps of Carol Moseley Braun, the first and only black woman elected to the U.S. Senate.

But no one knows for sure what the governor will do, or for that matter, who Obama would favor. On Tuesday of this week, the tea leaf readers might have interpreted something in the president-elect's Veterans Day appearance. On that day, Obama was seen very visibly with Tammy Duckworth, a disabled Iraq War veteran who ran unsuccessfully for Congress. Duckworth has been mentioned not only for the Senate seat but also for a position in Obama's cabinet as Secretary of Veterans Affairs.

But on the same day, a new poll was released that showed Jackson was the statewide favorite to fill Obama's seat. The Zogby telephone poll was conducted after the election and found that 21 percent of likely voters across Illinois think the governor should appoint Jackson to fill the seat. Duckworth, the director of the Illinois Department of Veterans' Affairs, was second with 14 percent.

The poll, commissioned and released by Jackson, shows him with a 43 percent favorable and a 22 percent unfavorable rating among likely voters. Duckworth had a 31 percent favorable and 9 percent unfavorable rating. Jackson's favorability ratings in the poll also beat two other members of Congress, Danny Davis (who is African American) and Jan Schakowsky, both of whom have been mentioned as replacements. 

But could Jackson win in 2010? He bested retiring Rep. Ray LaHood, a Republican, in a hypothetical statewide election, according to the poll. But there's no way of knowing who the Republicans would actually put up for the nomination.

For his part, Jackson has made no secret of his interest in the seat. "I'd be honored, I'd be humbled and yes, I would [be interested]'' Jackson told CNBC's Donny Deutsch last week. "But it is the decision of the governor of the state of Illinois," Jackson quickly added. "He'll have to make that judgment."

In the same interview, Jackson also put in a pitch for his candidacy. "I have 13 years of service in the Congress, I have only missed two votes,'' he said. "No Democrat or Republican can say that - I have a perfect voting record in Congress and I think I am up to the task.''